Unwinding

Earthside Comments: Last week the central government and the Federal Reserve wound-up the financial markets as tight as they could. They poured hundreds of billions of dollars into investments banks, they cut interest rates, they pounded down precious metals and commodities, everything they could think of to keep the economic clock from springing apart.

But, already we are beginning to see the unwinding. There is so much debt everywhere that nothing can rescue this economy except collapse, wringing out the red ink and starting all over again.

We read in some of the analyses that the American taxpayer and their grandchildren and great-grandchildren will be on the hook for eventual bailouts of more banks -- we disagree. The taxpayer in this country is tapped-out ... they aren't going to be paying much in taxes as jobs start to disappear and as inflation eats away at their incomes. You can't pay taxes if you don't have any money.

The following news reports and assessment is today's evidence that what we say is true.

Link: Drop In US Durable Goods Orders | BBC

US durable goods orders declined 1.7% in February, official figures have shown, the latest indication that the US economy faces the risk of recession.

The fall surprised analysts, who had expected the latest monthly data from the Commerce Department to show a 0.8% rise for last month.

Link: New Home Sales Fall to 13-Year Low | Associated Press/Yahoo! Finance

Sales of new homes fell in February for fourth straight month, pushing activity down to a 13-year low as the steep slump in housing continued.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that new home sales dropped 1.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units, the slowest sales pace since February 1995. The decline was slightly worse than expected.

The median price of a home sold last month dropped to $244,100, down 2.7 percent from the level of a year ago.

The prolonged slump in housing has dragged down overall economic activity. Many analysts believe the slump could combine with a multitude of other problems including a severe credit crunch, soaring energy prices and plunging consumer confidence, to push the country into a full-blown recession.

Link: Wall Street May Face $460 Billion in Losses, Goldman Says | Bloomberg

Wall Street banks, brokerages and hedge funds may report $460 billion in credit losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, or almost four times the amount already disclosed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Profits will continue to wane, other analysts said.

``There is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is still rather dim,'' Goldman analysts including New York-based Andrew Tilton said in a note to investors today. They estimated that residential mortgage losses will account for half the total, and commercial mortgages as much as 20 percent. ...

... Goldman's own share-price estimate was cut 3.7 percent to $210 at Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller. The research firm also reduced its profit estimates for the world's biggest securities firm for the rest of this year and all of 2009.

Merrill Lynch & Co. had its 2008 profit estimates cut by 45 percent at JPMorgan on concern the third-largest U.S. securities firm by market value may disclose further writedowns on subprime mortgages. Merrill may report a total of $5 billion in additional losses on collateralized debt obligations, so-called Alt-A mortgages and commercial mortgages, New York-based analyst Kenneth Worthington said.

Bank of America Corp., the second-biggest U.S. bank by assets, was downgraded to ``sell'' from ``neutral'' at Merrill Lynch. The company, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, also had its earnings-per-share estimate lowered to $3.30 from $3.50 in 2008 and to $4.00 from $4.40 in 2009, analysts including New York-based Edward Najarian wrote in a note to clients today.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, had its share-price forecast cut 16 percent to $70 at Fox-Pitt. The brokerage's 2008 and 2009 profit estimates were also reduced.

Goldman said the $460 billion in credit losses it foresees may ``result in a substantial tightening in credit conditions as these institutions pull back on lending to preserve their reduced capital and to maintain statutory capital adequacy ratios.''

Credit-card loans, auto loans, commercial and industrial lending and non-financial corporate bonds make up the rest of the $460 billion in credit losses.

Goldman, which has lost 16 percent this year on the New York Stock Exchange, rose 75 cents to $179.63 in composite trading at 4:07 p.m. Merrill fell 53 cents to $47.85, Lehman declined $1.43 to $45.21 and Bank of America dropped $1.48 to $40.97.

Link: Taxpayers May Be Liable From Bear, Mortgage Rescue | Bloomberg

Even as the Bush administration insists it won't risk public funds in a bailout, American taxpayers may already be liable for billions of dollars stemming from Federal Reserve and Treasury efforts to quell a financial crisis.

History suggests the Fed may not recover some of the almost $30 billion investment in illiquid mortgage securities it received from Bear Stearns Cos., said Joe Mason, a Drexel University professor who has written on banking crises. Treasury's push to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy more mortgage bonds reduces the capital the government-chartered companies hold in reserve at a time when foreclosures and defaults are surging.

Regulators ``are playing with fire,'' said Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. ``With good luck, none of these liabilities will come due. We can't expect that good luck, and we haven't had it.''

Link: Hoarding by Banks Stokes Fear Over Crisis | Financial Times

Central banks' efforts to ease strains in the money markets are failing to stop financial institutions from hoarding cash, stoking fears that the recent respite in equity markets may not signal the end of the credit crisis.

Banks' borrowing costs - a sign of their willingness to lend to each other - in the US, eurozone and the UK rose again even after the Federal Reserve's unprecedented activity in lending to retail and investment banks against weaker than usual collateral and similar action in Europe.

The continued friction in the money markets came even as stock markets were showing new signs of optimism in spite of fresh data from the US showing consumers at their most pessimistic for 35 years and house prices falling at the fastest rate on record. ...

... The Fed's latest lending to banks under its Term Auction Facility was also in heavy demand, receiving bids for $88.9bn compared with the $50bn on offer, an excess of demand almost as great as the previous auction two weeks ago, before the collapse of Bear Stearns.

But equity markets ignored the continued stresses in the plumbing of the financial system, partly in the hope that they were driven by liquidity hoarding at the end of the financial quarter.

Link: The Money Launderers | Alan Farago/CounterPunch.org

A week ago, on the day President Bush disavowed government intervention in financial markets, the Federal Reserve announced the fruit of its weekend labor: essentially guaranteeing hundreds of billions in toxic financial derivatives owned by banks. Money laundering has become the de facto standard of Federal Reserve policy.

The financial press has been filled with praise for the US government rescue of Bear Stearns, one of the worst offenders of reason and logic in the issuance of securitized mortgage debt. You have to turn to blogs to get a sense of the malfeasance.

Excerpt from the Hussman Funds' Weekly Market Comment (3/24/08) regarding the Fed's involvement on JPMorgan's (JPM) deal to buy out Bear Stearns (BSC):

In effect, the Federal Reserve decided last week to overstep its legal boundaries going beyond providing liquidity to the banking system and attempting to ensure the solvency of a non-bank entity. Specifically, the Fed agreed to provide a $30 billion "non-recourse loan" to J.P. Morgan, secured only by the worst tranche of Bear Stearns' mortgage debt. But the bank J.P. Morgan was in no financial trouble. Instead, it was effectively offered a subsidy by the Fed at public expense. Rick Santelli of CNBC is exactly right. If this is how the U.S. government is going to operate in a democratic, free-market society, "we might as well put a hammer and sickle on the flag."

What is a "non-recourse loan"? Put simply, if the homeowners underlying that weak tranche of debt go into foreclosure, they will lose their homes, and the public will lose as well. But J.P. Morgan will not lose, nor will Bear Stearns' bondholders. This will be an outrageous outcome if it is allowed to stand.

... it's a picnic for insiders, bought and paid for through the abuse of public funds by government officials too unprincipled even to recognize the abuse. The only good thing about this deal is that it buys time while principled ways of busting and restructuring it can be settled.

At a moment in history when the US treasury is hemorraging ($5000 per second in Iraq), the Bush White House is setting up to do something that can be understood only through a corrective lens that takes every sighting and reverses it: the party of laissez faire, free markets and minimal regulation supports the costliest nationalization of industry in US economic history.

Last week, in addition to rescuing Bear Stearns, the shadow financial system intervened in metals and commodity markets-- beating down anxiety indexes more sharply than at any time in the past half century. At the same time, the coordinated release of quarterly reports whose numbers ever so slightly "exceeded expectations" was enough justification--along with massive buying by US government operations that can only be faintly glimpsed--to send world stock markets back upwards.

Various metaphors have been used to describe US government intervention in the markets, like band-aid solutions to cure a gaping wound. In fact, the US government's attempts to calm investor anxiety at the observable financial disarray is like using chemical foam at the surface to kill a deep-burning coal fire.

There was more micromanaging of the news cycle by the money launderers this morning:

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Forget lower interest rates. For the Federal Reserve to keep the financial markets from imploding it needs to buy troubled mortgage bonds from banks and securities firms, say the world's biggest Treasury investors.

Even after cutting rates by 3 percentage points since September, expanding the range of securities it accepts as collateral for loans and giving dealers access to its discount window, the Fed has been unable to promote confidence. The difference between what the government and banks pay for three- month loans doubled in the past month to 1.92 percentage points.

The only tool left may be for the Fed to help facilitate a Resolution Trust Corp.-type agency that would buy bonds backed by home loans, said Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. While purchasing some of the $6 trillion mortgage securities outstanding would take problem debt off the balance sheets of banks and alleviate the cause of the credit crunch, it would put taxpayers at risk.

The US taxpayer is about to be force fed bad mortgage debt, that honest people didn't ask for-- created by Wall Street where incomes average $387,000 (NY Times, March 24, 2008 "With Economy Tied to Wall St. New York Braces for Job Cuts") and fostered by a culture of corruption rippling all the way down through mortgage brokers, appraisers, and local zoning officials for whom the hard currency of fraud is as likely Bahamian poker chips as dollars.

Poor America.